Joe Biden has leads in Nevada, Arizona & Wisconsin, suddenly PA & MI look good too

I wrote the earlier “this is where the election race is now” stories at like 4 am when I was completely freaked out and going on only a few hours’ sleep. In retrospect (can one have retrospect about something that happened four hours ago?), I really admire the fact that Joe Biden wasn’t freaking out in his early morning speech. He kept it pithy and optimistic and his people on the ground must have been telling him how it was going.

So, what’s changed in the race in the past four hours? Votes – mostly mail-in ballots – are still being counted in all of the swing states, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Ohio is dead – they went solidly for Trump. Nevada, Wisconsin and Arizona all have Biden ahead, and the votes left to count in those states are assumed to be from Democratic stronghold precincts. It’s more than possible that Biden will end up winning Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes. It’s more than possible that Biden will end up winning Nevada by about 10,000 votes. Arizona looks like it’s the one, out of those three, which has Biden winning by a larger margin. We’ll call it McCain’s Revenge.

Right now we’re looking hard at Pennsylvania and Michigan and the votes left to count in those two states. It seems like the areas which are the slowest to count ballots are mostly (if not all) Dem strongholds, especially in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, there are still 1.4 million absentee ballots left to be counted. And remember, everyone is assuming that absentee ballots heavily favor Biden. So… Biden’s path to victory would be Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan? I’m completely fine with that.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 4, 2020

— CNN Tonight (@CNNTonight) November 4, 2020

— Mark S. Getzfred (@marknyt) November 4, 2020

Photos courtesy of Avalon Red.

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