Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and betting tips
The Boston Red Sox (77-70) open a two-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (76-70) Saturday evening at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia won the first two of the season series by a combined score of 8-4.
Red Sox at Phillies: Projected Starting Pitchers
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Rodriguez fires into Saturday’s start with a 17-6 record, 3.73 ERA and .326 opponent on-base percentage. He has not faced Philadelphia this season. His last outing was against the New York Yankees. Rodriguez pitched well as he allowed just one solo home run in six innings. However, he tossed 117 pitches in that span and was visibly gassed after. He is pitching on normal rest as opposed to four days rest last time out.
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Nola has posted a 12-5 record, 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season in 31 starts for the Phillies. He faced the Red Sox several weeks ago and delivered a win. Nola yielded just two earned runs over seven innings and struck out seven batters. He has not looked quite so good lately, however. In his previous two outings, Nola has given up nine earned runs in ten innings pitched. That includes a loss against Atlanta, where he walked four batters and looked a little wild.
Red Sox at Phillies: By the Numbers
- Boston is a phenomenal 22-8 in Rodriguez’s starts, which includes winning 11 of his last 13 outings.
- Philadelphia is just 18-13 in Nola’s starts, while they have lost three outings in a row when Nola has taken the mound.
- Nola has struck out six or more batters in six consecutive starts.
- Philadelphia faces an ace on fire. Rodriguez is 4-1 in his last five starts with a sparkling 1.11 ERA. That includes 32 strikeouts in 32 1/3 IP.
- Philly is 5-5 in their last ten games and 4-3 in that time against opponents with a winning record.
Red Sox at Phillies: Odds, Picks, and Betting Tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; for a full-set of today’s sports betting odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.
Moneyline: The Red Sox (+105) are worth a small bet play against the Phillies ( -125). A $10 wager on Boston returns $10.50 in profit. Rodriguez is on that much of a roll to take this kind of risk even on the road.
Run line: The run line is -200 for the Red Sox, which is just too expensive Saturday. The Philadelphia line at +167 is too risky at -1.5 runs. This is one to stay away from.
Over/under: The OVER ( 8.5, -125) is worth a tiny wager against the grain of play. Philadelphia gives up just enough runs and their relievers’ team ERA is 18th in the majors (4.55 ERA). That ERA has been around 5 since the All-Star Break. A $10 wager on the over returns an $8.00 profit.
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