Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots odds, lines, picks and best bets

The New England Patriots (9-1) host the Dallas Cowboys (6-4) Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX. We analyze the Patriots-Cowboys odds and lines, providing sports betting NFL picks and advice around this key Week 12 matchup.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots: Week 12 preview, betting trends and notes


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  • The Patriots barely bested the Philadelphia Eagles last week, winning 17-10. It wasn’t pretty, and QB Tom Brady didn’t look sharp, hitting just 55.3% of his 47 passing attempts.
  • The Cowboys were given a run for their money from a bunch of Detroit Lions’ backups, but Dallas was able to pull out the 35-27 victory.
  • Dallas QB Dak Prescott has thrown for three touchdowns in each of the past three games. The Patriots are 2nd best vs. the pass, allowing 152.6 yards/game. They’ve only given up four passing touchdowns all season, so this will be a big key to the game.
  • These teams haven’t met since 2015 and the Patriots have won the last five games, dating back to ’99. Dallas had won the previous seven encounters.
  • The Patriots are the No. 1 defense in the league, allowing just 10.8 points and 249.9 yards per game. Dallas is the No. 1 offensive team, averaging 444.6 yards per game. Dallas is 4th in points scored at 28.6 points/game.
  • The Cowboys allow 322.1 yards/game, seventh best in the league, and are tied at seventh allowing 19.7 points/game. The Patriots average 359.9 yards/game offensively, 16th best in the league, yet they are third at 28.7 points/game. They just haven’t looked good recently and their ground game needs a major boost.

Cowboys at Patriots: Key injuries

Brady (elbow) was a surprise injury report addition Friday, when he was limited. He is questionable. His top-three receivers are also questionable, as Julian Edelman (shoulder), Mohamed Sanu Sr. (ankle) and Phillip Dorsett II (concussion) were all limited Friday.

The Cowboys are relatively healthy, but keep an eye on WR Amari Cooper (knee), who has dealt with a knee issue.

Cowboys at Patriots: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Patriots 24, Cowboys 20

Moneyline ( ?)

The PATRIOTS (-278) are the chalk pick here, but this should be closer to a toss up. The Cowboys (+220), however, like to throw in stinkers to keep us on our toes. Regardless, that’s a lot of tax to pay on New England. New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Pats returns just $3.60 profit with a victory.

Against the Spread ( ?)

The Cowboys are being spotted 6.5 (-110) points and that hook, as usual, scares me. The Patriots have covered in 70% of their games (7-3), but they’ve played some really poor opponents; that shouldn’t be the case Sunday. Dallas is 6-4 ATS. Expect this one to be close; even if New England has a lead, they are struggling to put better opponents away. DALLAS (+6.5, -110) is the play.

Over/Under ( ?)

Dallas is 7-3 vs. the O/U, while New England is 3-7. Something has to give, and it likely won’t be the New England defense. Continue to ride the UNDER (-125) with this set at 46.5.

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Ryan’s NFL-pick record: 21-10

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