Stanley Cup Final betting trends: Florida on verge of history
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Stanley Cup Final series odds
Vegas Golden Knights (-135) vs. Florida Panthers (+115)
After one of the most surprising playoff runs in NHL history, the Florida Panthers look to beat the odds one last time against the Vegas Golden Knights. The Panthers are -125 favorites, which would make this the tightest Stanley Cup Final series price since 2007.
The Panthers entered the postseason at 35-1 to win the Stanley Cup Final. Those would be the longest odds for any Stanley Cup champion in over three decades. Their odds reached 150-1 when they trailed the Boston Bruins 3-1 in their first-round series.
But since that 3-1 deficit, the Panthers have rattled off 11 wins in 12 games, despite not being favored in any of those games. The Panthers are up 14.07 units on the moneyline this postseason, which makes them the most profitable team in the last five postseasons. During the regular season, the Panthers were -15.14 units, 27th in the NHL and worst among the 16 playoff teams.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been a big part of that turnaround. The Panthers goaltender was -10.49 units in the regular season, going 24-21-3 in his decisions. But in the playoffs, he is 11-2, up 14.27 units.
The Panthers’ 16 straight games without being a favorite is their longest drought in the past five seasons. They are the first team to reach the Stanley Cup Final without being favored prior to the championship series in that span.
While Florida’s futures odds have been a roller coaster all season, the Vegas Golden Knights have been one of the favorites all season. Their odds were never longer than 22-1 this season, and they entered the playoffs at 12-1. They are even the early favorites to win the 2024 Stanley Cup (8-1).
This season, Vegas has been the second-most profitable team in the NHL this season, up 18.04 units. They’ve done most of their damage on the road, up 14.84 units. Adin Hill has been Vegas’ most profitable goalie this season, going 23-10-1, up 7.11 units. He’s gone 6-3 in the playoffs (+3.53 units).
Golden Knights games are 49-45-5 to the under this season, though 10 of their 17 playoff games have gone over. The Panthers have been the opposite, with their games going 49-41-8 to the over for the season but 6-10 in the playoffs.
These teams met twice during the regular season with the home team winning both times. Both games went under 6.5. Adin Hill and Sergei Bobrovsky started in both games.
Road teams have dominated this postseason, up 16.53 units. Over the last five non-bubble postseasons, road teams are up 26.11 units in the playoffs. The Stanley Cup Final has been closer to even, but road teams are still profitable, up 1.48 units in that span.
However, home teams have been the play in Game 1. Since the 2005 lockout, home teams are 14-2 in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final with six straight wins. Overs are 5-0-1 in Game 1 in the last six postseasons.
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