Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and best bets

The Denver Broncos (3-7) hit the road for a second straight week to play in the early window of games when they meet up with the Buffalo Bills (7-3) at 1 p.m. Sunday ET at New Era Field.

Denver at Buffalo: Week 12 preview, betting trends and notes

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  • Buffalo is 10-2 straight up in its last 12 games as a home favorite.
  • Denver is 4-0 against the spread in its last four November games.
  • Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Denver.
  • Denver is 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • Both teams having winning records ATS this season – Buffalo posting a 6-3-1 record and Denver sitting at 6-4.
  • Five of Denver’s losses this season have been by eight points or less, including three losses by just two points each.

Denver at Buffalo: Key injuries

The critical factor to know is that three Denver offensive line starters – Dalton Risner (ankle), Connor McGovern (back) and Ron Leary (shoulder/neck) sat out Wednesday’s practice and replacement starter Ju’Wuan James (knee) was limited. Buffalo offensive lineman Ty Nsekhe likely isn’t going to play because of an ankle injury and DE Jerry Hughes (groin) missed practice Wednesday. Like last week, Hughes will likely be listed as questionable, though he did play against Miami.

Denver at Buffalo: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:45 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Buffalo 20, Denver 16

Moneyline ( ?)

This game is expected to be tight despite Denver traveling across the country. Buffalo is given a pretty big number (-213) for only being a little more than a field goal favorite. We think Buffalo is going to win, but Denver is getting a solid return (+175), which would make the Broncos the better play if you’re looking for an upset in Week 12. This one is probably best to avoid because it could well come down to the final two minutes to determine a winner.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Broncos to win would return a profit of $17.50.

Against the Spread ( ?)

This spread has dropped from as high as five points for Buffalo when the spreads opened Monday. Denver’s defense collapsed against Minnesota last week, but has been strong most of the season. Buffalo has a knack for winning close games, so a 3.5-point spread (-106 for underdog Denver, -115 for Buffalo) seems about right on. This one will likely get even action on both sides, but our projection is Buffalo by four, so we’re leaning toward laying the points – but not rubber-stamping it.

Over/Under ( ?)

Buffalo has played five games this season against teams with a top-20 defense and hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any of those games. Denver has the league’s fourth-rated defense. The O/U is at 37.5, -110 on both sides. The early action has been heavily on the over because it is the lowest O/U on this week’s slate of games. But, it’s there for a reason. The defenses will dominate this one. TAKE THE UNDER.

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