Examining the Giants’ best NFL Draft trade-down scenarios
Find the salesperson who earned a commission on Dave Gettleman’s Honda Odyssey and you might get some insight into how the Giants will negotiate trades during this week’s NFL draft.
The No. 4 pick in the first round is for sale. The sticker price is known. The general manager’s asking price is not.
“If you and I walk into a dealership and buy the same car,” Gettleman said, “we’re going to pay two different prices. But, if we feel good about it, who cares what you paid? And you don’t care what I paid.”
League sources told The Post if the Giants do not trade down at No. 4, a second-round trade-back at No. 36 will be considered strongly — and that scenario actually could be the internal preference for restocking depth.
Hall of Famer Jimmy Johnson developed in the 1990s a widely circulated chart for trading draft picks. Secret slight variations exist, but the No. 1 pick generally is worth 3,000 points and the values drop off precipitously throughout the first round, with the Giants’ fourth pick valued at 1,800 and the No. 32 pick down to 590.
So, if the Giants trade out of No. 4, what would the return be? The ideal scenario is a partner eyeing Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa because quarterback trade-ups often are subject to a luxury tax.
A trade within the top 10 still would allow the Giants to get one of the top four offensive tackles or a sliding impact defender. Linebackers K’Laivon Chaisson and Patrick Queen fit in the middle of the first round.
For the No. 5 Dolphins, the difference is 100 points — made up with their fourth-round pick and two fifths. For the No. 6 Chargers, the difference is 200 points — made up with their third-rounder unless the Giants demand a ransom knowing the intention to jump the Dolphins.
The reportedly trade-eager No. 16 Falcons would need to find 800 points, prompting the inclusion of a future first-rounder — a tantalizing proposition made less so for Gettleman given uncertain 2021 job security.
In 2014, the Browns traded No. 4 for No. 9 and a 2015 first- and fourth-round picks. It was the dream heist, discarding the points chart.
Bills GM Brandon Beane — who once worked under Gettleman — recently said, “If I overpay a little bit, so be it. It’s better than waiting, sitting on my hands and I’m not really fired up about a guy when my pick comes up.”
The Giants need a partner with that mindset.
“If you have conviction toward a player, it’s hard to feel like you are ever going to lose in a deal,” former Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik said, “even though you may be giving up a little more value than what the point chart would suggest.”
The Jets gave three seconds to move from No. 6 to No. 3 in 2018. The Dolphins gave only one second to move from No. 12 to No. 3 in the quarterback-poor 2013 draft.
“You say to yourself, ‘Why don’t we all agree on one chart?’ ” said Gettleman, who frequently trades up but has never traded down. “That might make too much sense.”
Answer: Because trades are about competitors gaining an upper hand.
“If someone calls you and their chart doesn’t match yours … you don’t do it,” Gettleman said. “If both groups are motivated, you’ll come to some kind of conclusion.”
The Giants’ second-rounder is worth 540 points, exactly twice that of the last pick in the round. Sliding down would net mid-rounders and could close the gap before the Giants’ third-rounder (No. 99).
The Seahawks dropped from No. 37 to No. 47 and added a third-rounder (No. 77) last year. The Bears added a fourth and a sixth when dropping from No. 36 to No. 45 in 2017.
Linebacker/safety Jeremy Chinn, centers Lloyd Cushenberry and Matt Hennessey, edge Terrell Lewis and safety Grant Delpit could be in play after a slight second-round drop. The middle rounds are considered deep with starters but fewer trades than normal are expected given the virtual logistics.
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