Where Yankees’ top prospect Estevan Florial goes from here

Yankees top prospect Estevan Florial only has to look down the dugout to face his cautionary tale. It’s as old as baseball: highly touted up-and-comer has his dream squashed by injuries.

Florial’s manager Aaron Holbert lived it.

“I was a guy that was often injured and it’s tough,” says Holbert, the first-year High-A Tampa manager. “It’s tough, year after year, you set goals for yourself, you have an idea of where you want to end up.”

And then all of a sudden the injured list comes calling.

Holbert, now 46, was a Cardinals’ first-round pick, 18th overall, in 1990. He played one MLB game in 1996, and another 22 in 2005, mostly as a pinch-hitting second baseman. Holbert wasn’t quite the prospect Florial is, though.

The five-tool outfielder, signed at 17 for $200,000 out of the Dominican Republic, is the Yankees’ No. 1 prospect and is rated 47th overall by MLB.com, but his path to the majors has been more unpredictable than a knuckleball.

There was Florial’s one-year ban from MLB over a missing birth certificate, which raised red flags for a league office made sensitive by past prospects falsifying their ages. MLB determined that was not the case with Florial, and in 2015, he officially became a member of the Yankees organization. Three years later, he was a budding star at High-A Tampa.

Then an injury to his right hand last season limited him to just 84 games between Tampa and the Gulf Coast Rookie League.

“When you know you’re far from the field, it’s kind of frustrating,” said Florial, who seems determined to improve his English and so did not have a translator present for the phone interview.

Florial returned to the field this past spring training and earned comparisons to former Yankees great Bernie Williams. Florial said that praise is nice but so far unwarranted.

He had a chance to show off his defense in the middle of March, but when Florial leaped to snag a fly ball, he missed and fell on his right hand.

The diagnosis: Broken wrist. IL. Again.

He returned in early June to hit .231/.284/.362.645, with four home runs and 17 RBIs in 33 games mostly in center field. Thursday went 4-for-4 with two runs and an RBI against the Dunedin Blue Jays.

Florial’s biggest flaw has always been his strikeout rate, which is hovering around 34 percent this season. His strikeout rate in High-A last season was a lower, but still a concerning 26 percent. FanGraphs says 20 percent is an average strikeout rate.

“He’s got five tools. He’s got hittability, he’s got power, he’s got defense, he’s got a plus arm and he’s a plus, plus runner,” one scout said. “I’ve never doubted his physical tools.”

But?

“I am concerned about his ability to stay healthy,” the scout said.

At the Yankees complex, Florial rehabbed with Giancarlo Stanton, who along with Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks, figures to man the Yankees outfield for years to come. That could turn Florial into trade bait with the Yankees looking for starting pitching ahead of the approaching July 31 trade deadline.

“I’m not going to control that,” Florial said. “Only thing I can do is keep working, keep playing hard.”

The scout recommended Florial shorten his swings with two strikes, even if it means sacrificing driving the ball.

“I know strikeouts have become the norm in baseball, and everyone strikes out a lot,” the scout said. “But for him it shouldn’t be the case because he’s [fast] and he can do things by putting the ball in play with two strikes that most prospects can’t do.

“I just want to see him stay on the field for 140 games, get 600 at-bats,” the scout said, “and I think you’ll see a player put together some impressive offensive numbers.”

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