What is the current R rate in my area? How to track it every day – The Sun
THE "R" rate has become an essential tool for determining the likely spread of coronavirus in UK.
It measures the rate of infection that averages how many people are getting infected by one person – and officials are using this data to guide the UK out of lockdown.
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What is the R rate in your area?
The R rate indicates how fast coronavirus is likely to spread, and it varies across the UK.
According to data by Public Health England and Cambridge University the South West and North West are currently the worst hit.
Research suggests the reproduction rate is 1.01 in the North West and 1.0 in the South West.
It also warned that there is some evidence the value has risen in all regions, saying it was probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and work settings.
But the Government's scientific advisers believe the rate of coronavirus transmission in the UK as a whole has not breached the crucial value of 1, despite the evidence suggesting it is very close in some regions.
As of Tuesday, June 9, Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said the R rate was under 1.0 across the board during a conference on schools reopening.
However, on Friday, June 5, Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government's chief scientific adviser, said the reproduction rate for England was between 0.7 and 1 and it remained between 0.7 and 0.9 for the UK as a whole.
Sir Patrick said the prevalence of coronavirus was on a "downward trajectory" in the UK, adding: "The prevalence of coronavirus, according to the ONS, is at 0.1%, with 53,000 people with Covid-19 in the past two weeks."
He said the incidence rate was at 0.7 per cent per week, which meant there were "roughly" 39,000 new cases each week.
Sir Patrick added: "The latest R-value calculation is between 0.7 and 0.9 for the UK as a whole, it may be a little bit higher in England it may be between 0.7 and 1, and there is a bit of regional variation."
He said there could be "some places" where the R-value is very close to one.
Why is the R rate different across the UK?
While this is difficult to measure, a number of reasons could come into play here, among them the fact the R rate will tend to be higher in places with higher population densities, like large cities such as London.
Certain places which saw a large number of coronavirus cases may now also have a large number of people with immunity to the virus, while cities will also tend to have more care homes and hospitals which will affect the numbers.
There are also differences in how people live together, with people usually living in bigger family groups outside the large cities.
Similarly, places with higher levels of deprivation and poverty will affect the R rate as well.
How to track the R rate every day
Public Health England together with researchers at the University of Cambridge are working to regularly nowcast and forecast Covid-19 infections and deaths.
This is real-time tracking of the pandemic, as data accumulate over time, and is an essential component of a public health response to a new outbreak.
Find out here for the latest R rate in your area.
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What is the optimum R rate?
As of June 5 the so-called "R number" is between 0.7 and 0.9 in the UK — it needs to be kept below one.
Below R1 is the important bit because it means the virus will likely peter out.
The R rate needs to be below 1 for the UK to move out of lockdown.
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