Daily coronavirus death toll could be zero across UK in three weeks, says top scientist

BRITAIN'S daily coronavirus death toll could be zero in three weeks, according to a top scientist.

Professor Carl Heneghan, from Oxford University, said if trends continue the UK could expect to see no deaths by the end of the month.

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It comes after figures yesterday revealed there were no new Covid-19 deaths reported in the South of England in the last 24 hours.

Professor Heneghan, from the University of Oxford, said that virus-related 999 and 111 calls are also falling, which suggests levels of infection are down.

He told the Times: “The trend in the data is looking reassuring and there’s no reason it shouldn’t continue.

“By the end of the month we could be in a position where we are observing no deaths.”

The trend in the data is looking reassuring and there’s no reason it shouldn’t continue

The UK had its lowest rise in coronavirus deaths since before lockdown after 59 more people died on Monday – bringing the total to 40,597.

None of the deaths were recorded in hospitals in London, the South East and South West of England.

It's the first time since early in the pandemic that no Covid-19 deaths have been recorded in the capital – where the peak of the virus has been about two or three weeks ahead of the rest of the country.

NHS England said a "small number of people" had died in the city but that these would be "announced in coming days".

There is usually a lag in data over the weekend, when fewer deaths are officially registered – which is why the figures are usually lower on Sunday and Mondays.

They usually then tend to rise later in the week – meaning it is likely the number will be higher today.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock welcomed the major “milestone” and said it was clear the disease is “in retreat across the land”.

But Professor Heneghan says that it is possible there is a "seasonal element" to Covid-19, which means there could be fewer cases in the summer.

It is the case for other coronaviruses that cause mild-cold like symptoms, which tend to peak in the winter and tail off in the warmer months.

He said that more work was needed to understand how the virus spreads but suggested that shutting down large parts of the economy is not a "tool we should have to use in the future".

Prof Heneghan added: “Community transmission is low, admissions to hospitals are very low. We’ve been opening up society and it is reassuring that we’re going in the right direction. If we stay vigilant we should be able to continue opening up society . . . We’re seeing it across Europe — no bounce-back.”

Fresh hope

The latest figures should bring fresh hope to the capital, which has seen 6,026 coronavirus-related deaths.

Previous NHS data had revealed that there had been a death attributable to Covid-19 in London every day since 10 March.

And at its peak there were more than 1,000 patients a day fighting for their lives in London's ICUs.

But medics know that London, with its large population, and close density in inner city areas, could easily become a victim of a second wave.

NHS bosses have refused to provide detailed figures on a hospital by hospital basis of those still in intensive care, fearing the public might become complacent.

Top experts are worried there could be a second wave in the capital due to the public becoming too relaxed.

Professor John Edmunds, who sits on the Government’s SAGE scientific committee, and who last week said he was opposed to the new loosening of lock down, added a note of caution.

He said: “This is great news. But we don't want to go back to having our ICU wards full with patients struggling to fight off Covid.

"Hence we all need to keep to the social distance rules and we only relax them further if it's safe to do so and the incidence of new cases has come right down."

Dr Joe Groves, one of a team of virologists studying Covid-19 at University College London, said: “This is a reward for everyone following instructions during the lockdown. It has helped reduce the infection rate in the capital.

“It is so important that in the next stage we keep to the new rules and avoid temptation to bend them.

"If we don’t stick to what we have been told there is a real danger of a second wave. And that might be worse than the first wave.”

So far in the UK the virus has killed over 40,000 people and the capital has seen 6,026 deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said yesterday: “Sadly, we do expect more fatalities in the future, though, not least because the figures recorded at the weekend are typically lower.

"What’s more, 55 deaths is still 55 too many.”

The data provided by NHS is however not a real-time snapshot of the number of people who have died in the previous 24 hours.

It is the number of new deaths reported to various health authorities during this period, regardless of when the deaths actually took place.

Deaths can take several days to be recorded and processed before they appear in these particular figures – so caution should be taken in reading too much into the day-on-day changes.

The overall number of deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK, based on deaths where Covid-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate – including suspected cases – is close to 51,000.

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