Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and best bets

The Brooklyn Nets (16-16) tangle with the Dallas Mavericks (21-12) at American Airlines Center Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Nets-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.

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Nets at Mavericks: Key injuries

Nets

  • SG Garrett Temple (knee) questionable
  • SG Caris LeVert (thumb) out
  • PG Kyrie Irving (shoulder) out
  • SF Kevin Durant (Achilles) out

Mavericks

  • SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (hamstring) out
  • PF Kristaps Porzingis (knee) out
  • SF Luka Doncic (thigh) probable

Nets at Mavericks: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Mavericks 118, Nets 105

Moneyline (ML)

This matchup lines up nicely for the Mavericks (-333); they defend the three well-ranked sixth in the NBA in opponents’ 3-point percentage (33.6), while the Nets shoot poorly from distance-ranked 28th in 3-point percentage (33.3). Both teams are good rebounding squads-the Nets are ranked second in rebounds per game and the Mavericks are third-but the Nets are 26th in opponents’ rebounds per game so the Mavericks should be able to control the glass.

The Mavericks’ win probability is 78% in their game versus the Nets, but the Mavericks -333 is terrible value. Betting $358 to win $100 is no bueno if you’re trying to win money in the long run. PASS.

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

We are on MAVERICKS (-8.5, +105) to win by at least 9 points. PG Spencer Dinwiddie is key to the Nets success with Irving and LeVert sidelined-when Dinwiddie scores 20-plus points in games he starts, the Nets are 11-7 straight up. The problem in this matchup is the Mavericks allow the second-fewest fantasy points for point guards in the NBA. Furthermore, the Nets underperform expectations on the road (7-10 ATS). They are 0-5 straight up on the road against teams above .500.

While there are reasons to fall for the Nets defense-ranked 12th in defensive rating (107.2) and third in opponents’ field-goal percentage (43.1)-I’ll take those metrics with a grain of salt because they’ve played the easiest strength of schedule in the NBA.

Over/Under (O/U)

I am leaning to the OVER 220.5 (-129) for a few reasons. The -129 price is BetMGM trying price us out on an Over bet, the combined Over/Under record of the Nets and Mavericks is 34-30-1 and the Over is 4-1 in the last five Nets-Mavericks games. This is only a lean and not a like for me because of the Mavericks’ early season success defending guards and if they jump out to a big lead on the Nets, then the scoring could die in the fourth quarter.

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