Mike Clays guide to NFL player props for Week 6

16/10/2021

Fantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
Member of Pro Football Writers of America
Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings

Each week of the 2021 NFL season, I will review every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and pick out my favorite plays. This week’s best bets are listed below in no particular order.

Season results: 33-27 (+3.9 units)

For thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our staff roundtable on the topic.

Tyler Lockett over 57.5 receiving yards (-115), DK Metcalf over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)

We’re coming out firing this week with somewhat risky “over” picks for a pair of standout wide receivers who will be without their standout quarterback. Metcalf has reached 62 receiving yards in three straight games and did so in 10 of 17 games in 2020. Lockett has hit 58 yards in two of five games this season and in eight games last season. Though we must lower expectations with Russell Wilson out, we must raise them against a Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 196 receiving yards per game just to wide receivers. That includes at least 221 yards in three games (at Buffalo, vs. Las Vegas, vs. Denver). Eight wideouts have already reached 58 receiving yards against the Steelers this season (nine, if we include Raiders tight end Darren Waller). Yes, Wilson is out and Geno Smith is under center, but these lines seem to have overcorrected a bit, especially with the Steelers’ struggling pass defense on deck.

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