Trends and tactics that propelled Donald Trump to his 2016 win could reelect him in 2020

Lots of things have to go right for President Donald Trump to retain his grasp on the Oval Office. But so far, much in the 2020 political environment and in Trump’s campaign tactics point toward a replay of his upset victory.

There are three broad characteristics of the 2016 political environment that helped Trump gain the White House: a growing popular discontent with the government, the rise of the “professional government” and increasing partisan polarization.

How does all this stack up now? The three big trends that aided Trump in 2016 are still with us in 2020. 

First, in the last presidential election, popular discontent with government created a widespread distrust of established leaders and institutions. Today, this dynamic is as strong as ever. The nonpartisan Pew Research Center found last year that only 17% of the public trusted the government in Washington to do the right thing all or most of the time, the lowest level since the question was first asked in 1958.

‘Swamp’ Trump attacked is still here

Second, governing professionals are an elite built on merit through occupational accomplishment. And, despite Trump’s rhetorical fulminations, the professional government in Washington has not shrank since 2016. Federal spending in fiscal 2020 equals about 21% of the nation’s gross domestic product, a level that has remained stable during Trump’s time in the White House. 

Third, the public is wary of the Washington establishment — Trump shrewdly labels it the “swamp” — and disdains the constant partisan scrapping that dominates news coverage of national government. Under Trump, partisan polarization has become even more pronounced, culminating in the almost entirely party line votes to impeach Trump in the House. In the electorate, we have witnessed the rise of “negative partisanship,” with partisans taking an increasingly negative and hostile view of adherents of the other major party.

President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Toledo, Ohio, on Jan. 9, 2020. (Photo: Jacquelyn Martin, AP)

Indications are that Trump intends to repeat much of the strategy used to secure victory in 2016. Can he continue to benefit from this unpleasant environment? That will very much depend on four campaign features that delivered him victory: 

►Outsider status. During the 2016 election, Trump’s long career as a public celebrity gave him an identity and “brand” widely known to the public and the perception that he was a political outsider. Despite incumbency, the president’s outsider status seems intact and is reinforced by his daily cascade of unorthodox and vituperative tweets.

Battlegrounds 2020: It’s not the economy, stupid. It’s Donald Trump.

►Social media. Much like his 2016 efforts, his campaign is well positioned to exploit social media to it electoral advantage. While Democratic presidential candidates spent millions sparring with each other, Trump in 2019 amassed $143 million for his campaign. He can tout a growing economy as a major campaign theme.

►Disillusioned voters. As in 2016, Trump’s outsider style and message seem likely again to resonate with the voters fed up with the Washington establishment.

►Big wild card. Trump’s 2020 opponent may or may not have the same vulnerabilities as Hillary Clinton had. Clinton represented the polarized and professional governing class that Trump rightly saw as an inviting target for his outsider message and demeanor. With historically high negatives, Trump and his 2016 campaign team understood that he would not win a popularity contest. Instead, the focus was on winning a contest among the unpopular.  

Beating Trump: Four clues for Democrats from Michigan’s winning 2018 playbook

Reelection is far from a sure thing for President Trump. After all, his job approval in office has seldom matched the 46.1% of the vote he received in the 2016 election — an election in which he lost the popular vote by 2.87 million ballots. But the signs point toward another bitter, divisive and closely contested presidential race in 2020. That worked for Trump in 2016 and may well work for him again.

Steven E. Schier is emeritus professor at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota. Todd E. Eberly is professor of political science at Saint Mary’s College of Maryland. Their book, “How Trump Happened: A System Shock Decades in the Making,” will be published in March.

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